Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
